建信期货多晶硅日报-20250812

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend. The closing price of PS2509 was 52,985 yuan/ton, with a gain of 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4] Outlook - The transaction price range of N-type refeed materials was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. The futures and spot prices were rigidly supported by the policy. Short - term declines were mostly stage adjustments. The commodity rebound and the daily limit in the same sector provided emotional stimulation and policy imagination [4] - Recently, the开工 rate of rising - price varieties has rebounded significantly. The supply - demand contradiction has not intensified, but the increase in polysilicon prices has not been transmitted to components and terminal power stations. The fundamentals, although not the short - term dominant factor, also restricted the price increase [4] - On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which could meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased to about 52GW. The overall supply - demand pattern remained loose. Therefore, short - term emotional fermentation might test the resistance level, and the overall trend would be mainly wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 3: Market News - On August 8, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,700 lots, a net increase of 1,080 lots from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]