建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Futures are oscillating warmly, but the sentiment of the spot market is not significantly boosted. The prices of producers are mostly stable, and traders are mainly focused on active sales. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases based on low - price and just - in - time needs. - The upstream device operating load continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still at a high level, the impact of maintenance is decreasing. With the approaching of new capacity release plans, the pressure of supply increase is gradually emerging. - The downstream factories are still affected by the off - season, and the willingness to stock up is low. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month. - The cost - side support is somewhat differentiated. Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall again. - The fundamental loose pattern will continue to restrict the upward space. With the release of new capacity and the expected stocking demand in the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin prices may show a trend of bottom - building through oscillation followed by a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The plastic 2509 contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.27%), with a trading volume of 176,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The PP main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.41%), with a decrease in positions. - Supply: The upstream device operating load is increasing. The impact of PP maintenance is decreasing, and new capacity release plans are approaching. For PE, new capacity has been put into operation in July, and more is expected in August. - Demand: Downstream factories are in the off - season, with low stocking willingness. It is expected that demand will improve in the second half of the month. - Cost: Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 835,000 tons, a 12.08% increase from the previous working day, the same as the same period last year. - The PE market prices fluctuated slightly. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - Futures Market Data: Tables show the opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - Other Data: Graphs present information such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, and crude oil futures settlement prices. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market increased by 245 yuan/ton to 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton. The PP market was slightly adjusted, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7][8].