沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The SHFE nickel contract 2509 is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation shows a long - term surplus pattern, with mixed signals from different indicators. The fundamental aspect is slightly bearish due to increased supply and long - term surplus, but the basis is bullish, and the inventory and主力持仓 are bearish while the price is above the 20 - day moving average which is bullish [3][4]. - 不锈钢: The stainless steel contract 2510 is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The fundamental situation is neutral, with the basis being bullish, the inventory (futures warehouse receipts) being bearish, and the price above the 20 - day moving average which is bullish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 沪镍 Daily View - 基本面: The external market rose significantly, and the price stood above the 20 - day moving average. There was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The mineral price was stable, the ferronickel price rose steadily, and the cost line rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery loading decreased. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, showing a bearish tendency [4]. - 基差: The spot price was 122,850, and the basis was 720, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - 库存: LME inventory was 211,296 (a decrease of 936), and SHFE warehouse receipts were 20,723 (an increase of 102), showing a bearish signal [4]. - 盘面: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - 主力持仓: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [4]. 不锈钢 Daily View - 基本面: The spot stainless steel price rose. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping freight decreased slightly, the ferronickel price rose steadily, the cost line increased slightly, and the stainless steel inventory decreased, showing a neutral situation [6]. - 基差: The average stainless steel price was 13,812.5, and the basis was 587.5, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - 库存: The futures warehouse receipts were 103,036 (an increase of 53), showing a bearish signal [6]. - 盘面: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a bullish signal [6]. 多空因素 - 利多因素: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [9]. - 利空因素: Domestic production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [9]. 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 - 期货 prices: On August 11, compared with August 8, the SHFE nickel main contract rose by 950 to 122,130, the LME nickel rose by 210 to 15,325, the stainless steel main contract rose by 240 to 13,225 [14]. - Spot prices: On August 11, compared with August 8, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose by 900 to 122,850, 1 Jinchuan nickel rose by 900 to 123,950, 1 imported nickel rose by 950 to 122,100, and nickel beans rose by 950 to 124,200 [14]. 镍仓单、库存 - 上期所镍库存: As of August 8, the total inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. Compared with the previous period, the total inventory increased by 444 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 753 tons [16]. - 8 - 11 inventory data: LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (a decrease of 936), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 20,723 (an increase of 102), and the total inventory was 232,019 (a decrease of 834) [17]. 不锈钢仓单、库存 - 8 - 8 inventory data: Wuxi inventory was 61.62 tons, Foshan inventory was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared with the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 19,100 tons [20]. - 8 - 11 inventory data: Stainless steel warehouse receipts were 103,036 (an increase of 53) [21]. 镍矿、镍铁价格 - 镍矿 prices: On August 11, compared with August 8, the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained at 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 29 dollars per wet ton. Shipping freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [24]. - Ferronickel prices: The price of high - nickel ferronickel rose by 0.5 to 919 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained at 3,400 yuan per ton [24]. 不锈钢生产成本 - The traditional cost was 12,864, the scrap steel production cost was 13,588, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,461 [26]. 镍进口成本测算 - The imported price was converted to 123,814 yuan per ton [29].