焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-12）-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coking Coal: Despite some negative factors such as slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices, considering the high level of steel mill hot metal production, short - term demand is still supported. It is expected that the coking coal price will run strongly in the short term [2]. - Coke: Although coke producers' production level has slightly increased, due to cost pressure and limited production increase space, and with high demand from some downstream steel mills, the supply - demand pattern remains tight. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Recent production cuts in coal mines have led to a slight reduction in supply. The spot market is cautious, with some high - priced coal seeing price drops. Most mines have no obvious inventory accumulation [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1100, with a basis of - 156, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 tons, an increase of 45.9 tons from last week [2]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - Expectation: The sixth round of coke price increase proposed by coking enterprises has not been implemented. Considering high hot metal production, short - term demand is supported, and the price is expected to run strongly [2]. - Coke - Fundamentals: Coke producers' production has slightly increased, but cost pressure remains, and the production increase space is limited. Downstream demand is high, and supply - demand is tight [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 1590, with a basis of - 89, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 839.7 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from last week [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - Expectation: Coke producers' inventory is low, and production is difficult to increase significantly. With high demand from steel mills, the price is expected to remain stable [6]. Factors Affecting Prices - Coking Coal - Positive: Increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - Negative: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - Coke - Positive: Increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Negative: Compression of steel mill profit margins and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. Inventory Data - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [42]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [46].