Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw a fluctuating upward trend in Shanghai zinc futures, closing with a positive candlestick. The trading volume increased, and both long and short positions reduced their holdings by a similar margin, resulting in a volume - shrinking upward movement. The price rose while bulls exited to wait and see, and bears also adopted a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the market may experience a fluctuating consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, strengthening the moving average support. Short - term indicators KDJ rose and operated in the strong zone; the trend indicator rose, with the bullish power increasing and the bearish power decreasing, and the long - short forces were in a stalemate. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will fluctuate and consolidate [19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +40 with the spot price at 22,550, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,075 tons to 80,425 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,148 tons to 15,494 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating upward trend in the previous trading day, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (August 11) - The total trading volume of zinc futures on August 11 was 157,190 lots, with a total trading value of 1.7742915 billion yuan. The total open interest was 213,578 lots, an increase of 4,712 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (August 11) - The price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 22,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,097 yuan/unit, an increase of 9 yuan/unit; the price of galvanized pipes in China was 4,499 yuan/unit, an increase of 5 yuan/unit; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou remained unchanged at 20,850 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,729 yuan/ton [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 31 - August 11, 2025) - As of August 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 990,000 tons, an increase of 118,000 tons compared to August 4 and an increase of 77,000 tons compared to August 7 [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (August 11) - The total zinc warrants on August 11 were 15,494 tons, an increase of 1,148 tons. Among them, the warrants in Shanghai decreased by 25 tons, those in Guangdong increased by 1,198 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 25 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (August 11) - On August 11, the LME zinc inventory was 80,425 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 34,700 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 43.15% [7]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Prices (August 11) - No detailed price data is provided in the report, only the title is given [9]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (August 11) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,890 yuan/ton, from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,950 yuan/ton, from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 22,620 yuan/ton, etc. [13]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production exceeded the plan by 2.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (August 11) - The processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions vary. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the average processing fee ranges from 3,500 to 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade is 70 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (August 11) - For the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (25,363 lots, an increase of 2,137 lots), Guotai Junan (22,104 lots, an increase of 1,035 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (13,309 lots, an increase of 417 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (8,354 lots, a decrease of 395 lots), Dongzheng Futures (7,503 lots, an increase of 130 lots), and Guotai Junan (6,357 lots, a decrease of 533 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (8,047 lots, a decrease of 240 lots), Shenwan Futures (5,833 lots, an increase of 461 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (5,593 lots, an increase of 733 lots) [18].
沪锌期货早报-20250812
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-12 01:59