工业硅期货早报-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production scheduling continues to increase. The demand side shows continuous recovery, with continuous increases in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a short - term decrease followed by a medium - term recovery in component production. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production cut plans, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of demand after the festival and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the supply was 84,000 tons, a 370% increase from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 1143% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicone inventory is at a low level, and the comprehensive silicone production profit is 479 yuan/ton. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the Xinjiang sample of oxygen - passing 553 production has a loss of 2888 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: On August 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 130% to 547,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.81% to 170,050 tons, and the main port inventory decreased by 0.84% to 118,000 tons [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. - Expectation: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production have different trends, and the production profit is 9720 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On August 11, the N - type dense material price was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5985 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level in the same period [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. - Expectation: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. 2. Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of increase. The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory also had corresponding changes [15]. - Polysilicon: The prices of various silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, and the production, inventory, and export data of polysilicon and its downstream products also changed [17]. 3. Other Data and Trends - Industrial Silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - sample area trends, and weekly and monthly supply - demand balance trends are presented [19][22][25][30][32][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon and their downstream products are also analyzed [40][45][48][59].