大越期货PVC期货早报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4954 - 5066 [8][9]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48% [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points), 32.09% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points), and 76.92% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points) respectively. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was -，252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of ethylene method was -，488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2653.25 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - Other Factors: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. On August 11, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was -，60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 2.36% month - on - month, while social inventory increased by 7.32% month - on - month. The MA20 remained flat, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, inventory, and operating rates of different types of PVC products such as partial monthly spreads, East China SG - 5, and national calcium carbide and ethylene methods [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: It shows the historical data of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - Price and Volume Trends: It includes the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats of the main contract [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: It displays the historical data of the spreads of the main contracts such as 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It provides data on the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of chlor - alkali and double - ton price differences [26][29][31][33][35][37]. - PVC Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods [38][41]. - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products. It also presents data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, new special bonds of local governments, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [43][47][54][57]. - Inventory: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [58][59]. - Ethylene Method: It provides data on the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spreads of ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spreads [60][61]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63][64].