Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply glut continues to suppress the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and traders expect a surge in Western arbitrage cargoes to boost inventories in the Singapore region. For high - sulfur fuel oil, although the spot supply is sufficient and the seasonal public demand weakens, the downstream high - sulfur fuel oil premium in Singapore is supported by stable demand and moderate shipping schedules. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur, but overall, it will mainly operate in a volatile manner. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2760 - 2800, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3470 - 3510 [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by supply glut; high - sulfur fuel oil downstream premium in Singapore is supported. The base - value shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 470,000 barrels to 20.749 million barrels in the week of August 6. The price is below the 20 - day line. The high - sulfur main position is short and the short position decreases, while the low - sulfur main position is long and the long position increases. The continuation of the Sino - US trade exemption provides some support to the market [3] 2. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: Sanctions against Russia may be intensified [4] - Likely to Fall: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Supply glut suppresses low - sulfur fuel oil; high - sulfur fuel oil downstream premium in Singapore is supported by demand and shipping schedules [3] - Base - value: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 402.27 US dollars/ton with a base - value of 218 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil is 489.5 US dollars/ton with a base - value of 142 yuan/ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 20.749 million barrels, an increase of 470,000 barrels [3][8] - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main Position: High - sulfur main position is short and the short position decreases; low - sulfur main position is long and the long position increases [3] - Expectation: The continuation of the Sino - US trade exemption provides support. High - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than low - sulfur, and it will operate in a volatile manner. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2760 - 2800, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3470 - 3510 [3] 4. Spread Data No specific spread data analysis provided other than the mention of high - low sulfur futures spread graph 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 6 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 470,000 barrels to 20.749 million barrels in the week of August 6 [8]
大越期货燃料油早报-20250812
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:17