棉花早报-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a neutral outlook based on various factors. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with attention on the resistance around 14,000 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year. Negative factors involve the postponement of trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton year. The ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.90 million tons and consumption of 25.60 million tons. The USDA 7 - month report indicates a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in June were 30,000 tons, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,161 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,281 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, and textile export data in July is not ideal. It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with resistance around 14,000 [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (July): Global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.90 million tons, consumption is 25.60 million tons, ending inventory is 17.10 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.70 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, data on China's cotton's beginning inventory, sown area, harvested area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, ending inventory, domestic average price, and Cotlook A index are presented [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.