大越期货沥青期货早报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has reduced pressure recently due to refineries cutting production, but it may increase next week. The planned total production volume of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. [8] - The demand side is generally lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. [8] - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. Crude oil is weakening, and the support is expected to weaken in the short term. [9] - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract futures closes below MA20. The main positions are net short, and there is a shift from long to short. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 oscillating in the range of 3457 - 3505. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - Demand - side: Overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the recovery is less than expected. [8] - Cost - side: Asphalt processing losses are decreasing, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. [9] - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below MA20, showing a bearish trend. [10] - Main Positions: The main positions are net short, with a shift from long to short, showing a bearish trend. [10] - Expectation: The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 oscillating in the range of 3457 - 3505. [10] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Base - spread: On August 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3680 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 199 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish trend. [11] - Inventory: Social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; factory inventory is 0.679 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 0.025 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Overall, it is neutral. [11] 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. [9] - Supply - side: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price, Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the weekly shipment volume of sample enterprises is 280,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.90%. [8][46] - Inventory: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio. Social inventory is on the rise, while factory inventory is decreasing. [11][68] - Demand - side: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况. Overall, the demand is lower than the historical average. [81][84] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance situation from January 2024 to August 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand. [106][107]