大越期货甲醇周报-20250812

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations, and attention should be paid to whether the arbitrage between the inland and ports is opened. The inland supply increases due to the concentrated resumption of previously shut - down methanol plants, but the tight - balance supply - demand pattern continues. It is expected to fluctuate strongly next week. The supply - demand contradiction in ports is obvious, with concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants in ports. The futures market has some support but limited upward momentum, and the East China methanol market is expected to fluctuate with both rises and falls next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases, but the tight - balance pattern persists. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, and the futures market has support but limited upside [6]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices in different regions had different changes. Jiangsu decreased by 0.21%, Hebei increased by 1.79%, Inner Mongolia increased by 1.21%, and Fujian decreased by 1.03%. The price in Shandong remained unchanged [7]. Methanol Basis - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the futures price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis increased by 5 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based increased by 334 yuan/ton from August 1st to August 8th [12]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared with last week, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [14]. Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, CFR China decreased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 1 [17]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the import cost decreased by 0.51%, and the import spread increased by 7 [20]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices of formaldehyde and acetic acid remained unchanged, and dimethyl ether increased by 0.79% [24]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The formaldehyde production profit decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% this week compared with last week [28]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% this week compared with last week [30]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The acetic acid production profit increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% this week compared with last week [35]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% this week compared with last week [39]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased by 8.60 to 51.08, and in the South China port, it increased by 6.70 to 29.25 [40]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The warehouse receipts increased by 1.66% to 8688, and the valid forecasts remained at 1100 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic enterprises are in maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary [44]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses, including restarting, normal operation, and planned maintenance [45]. Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are running stably, some are in maintenance, and some have load - related issues [46].