大越期货原油早报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff truce between the US and China has been extended by 90 days, and OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. Although inflation has risen, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The oil price is expected to fluctuate before the US - Russia summit on Friday, with a short - term trading range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have decreased, while the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The tariff truce extension, OPEC+ production cut, and expected Fed rate cut are neutral factors. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, API and EIA inventories decreased, but the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below it, and WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long - increasing [3]. - Market Data: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and Oman crude oil showed different changes, with Brent up 0.04 (0.06%), WTI up 0.08 (0.13%), SC down 3.90 (- 0.79%), and Oman down 0.53 (- 0.77%) [7]. 3.2 Recent News - Trade Policy: The US has extended the tariff exemption period with China again. Without the extension, the US would have raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and China would have retaliated with 125% tariffs. After previous negotiations, the US reduced tariffs to 30% and China to 10% [5]. - Geopolitical Events: Trump will meet with Putin on Friday to assess the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. European countries are worried that the US may pressure Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace agreement [5]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period has been extended again [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory Data: API inventory decreased by 423.3 million barrels in the week ending August 1, and EIA inventory decreased by 302.9 million barrels in the same period. Cushing area inventory increased by 45.3 million barrels, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory decreased by 48.2 million barrels as of August 11 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3].