Workflow
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250812
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:37

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weak. With smooth downstream procurement, normal slaughter by farmers, and the impact of local epidemics, the market is continuously suppressed. The current supply - demand situation is weak. In August, the slaughter of large - scale farms is expected to resume, and there is also a need to slaughter large pigs previously held back by small farmers. Short - term pig prices are not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - month 09 contract faces strong upward pressure. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies. It is not recommended to blindly short, but in the case of good hedging profits on the futures market, the impact of hedging funds also needs attention [2]. 粕类Industry - Trump's hope for China to significantly increase the import of US soybeans has improved the export expectation of US soybeans, leading to a sharp rise in US soybean prices. The continuous increase in Brazilian soybean premiums has supported domestic import costs, but the improved expectation of US soybean imports may suppress price increases. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously rising, and short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing spot prices. In operation, the support from US soybeans is strengthening, so the downward space for domestic soybean meal on a single - side basis is relatively limited. However, if domestic supply increases, it may affect the trend of the 2601 contract on the futures market. Considering the strength of oils, long positions held previously should be held with caution [7]. Oil Industry No core view summary other than data changes provided. Corn Industry - The current channel inventory is relatively tight, and some traders have a certain willingness to support prices. The number of incoming vehicles remains at a low level. However, affected by weak market sentiment and the pressure of new grain listing in some areas, the spot price is running weakly with stability. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly have rigid demand, and inventory is continuously consumed, with no obvious boost in consumption and general procurement enthusiasm. In the substitution aspect, wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - protection policy price. The price relationship between corn and wheat is within the substitution range, squeezing the demand for corn. In the short term, the tight remaining grain situation supports prices, but the weak market sentiment remains unchanged, and the futures market maintains a low - level oscillation. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, and the output may increase steadily. The supply pressure is still significant, and the valuation of the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [17]. Sugar Industry - ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. Affected by strong production signs, the raw sugar price has slightly declined. However, it is worth noting that although Brazil's sugarcane crushing is approaching its peak, the high proportion of sugar production has not led to a year - on - year increase in cumulative sugar production. The full - blown expectations of bumper harvests in India and Thailand require attention to the later weather trends. It is expected that it is difficult for the raw sugar price to break through the previous low in the short term, but considering the increasing production pattern, an overall bearish approach should be taken. With the increase in imports, processed sugar is gradually entering the market, and the price quotes are loosening, putting pressure on prices. Terminal market demand is average, and procurement is mainly on a need - to - use basis, with weak inventory - building willingness. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a bearish trend [22]. Cotton Industry - On the supply side, the spot basis is temporarily firm. There has been a marginal improvement in the industrial downstream this week, but the amplitude is not large. There has been a slight increase in local sample orders at the grey fabric end. After the cotton price stabilizes, the shipment of cotton yarn has also slightly improved. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. There is temporary support for the cotton price, but the overall confidence in the downstream is still insufficient, and the expectations are not strong. As the new cotton listing period is approaching, the expected output of new - season cotton is still increasing steadily, bringing certain pressure on long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range in the short term and be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [23]. Egg Industry - Egg prices have dropped to a stage low. Downstream traders and food factories may replenish stocks at low prices, and the increase in egg procurement will support the rise in egg prices. However, the egg - laying hen inventory remains at a high level, the egg supply is sufficient, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the increase in egg prices. Overall, the trend of egg futures remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Industry - Futures Market Data: The basis of the main contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.97%. The price of the main contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 14180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.00% [1]. - Spot Market Data: The spot prices in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the local premium and discount also changed [1]. - Slaughter Data: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 866 to 138986, an increase of 0.63% [1]. 粕类Industry - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The price of the 2601 contract increased by 16 yuan/ton to 3094 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%. The basis of the 2601 contract increased by 4 to - 154, an increase of 2.53%. The import profit margin for Brazilian soybeans in October decreased by 12 to 92, a decrease of 11.5% [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%. The price of the RM2601 contract increased by 37 to 2506, an increase of 1.50%. The basis of the RM2601 contract decreased by 7 to 154, a decrease of 4.35%. The import profit margin for Canadian rapeseed in November increased by 30 to 369, an increase of 8.85% [7]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton. The price of the main soybean contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 4067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02%. The basis of the main soybean contract increased by 42 to - 107, an increase of 28.19% [7]. - Spreads: The soybean meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to - 49, a decrease of 4.26%. The rapeseed meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 3 to 267, a decrease of 1.11% [7]. Oil Industry - Soybean Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8610 yuan/ton. The price of the Y2601 contract increased by 56 yuan/ton to 8456 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67%. The basis of the Y2601 contract decreased by 56 to 154, a decrease of 26.67% [10]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The price of the P2509 contract increased by 238 yuan/ton to 9218 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65%. The basis of the P2509 contract decreased by 288 to - 238, a decrease of 576.00% [11]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 9640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31%. The price of the 01509 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 9588 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The basis of the 01509 contract decreased by 44 to 52, a decrease of 45.83% [12]. - Spreads: The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 to 16, an increase of 33.33%. The palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at - 20 [13]. Corn Industry - Corn: The price of the 2509 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2262 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%. The semi - cabin price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged at 2300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 7 to 38, a decrease of 15.56% [17]. - Corn Starch: The price of the 2509 contract remained unchanged at 2642 yuan/ton. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2710 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at 68 yuan/ton [17]. Sugar Industry - Futures Market: The price of the 2601 contract remained unchanged at 5573 yuan/ton. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 5678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.27 cents/pound to 16.54 cents/pound, an increase of 1.66% [22]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The spot price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5825 yuan/ton [22]. - Industry Data: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 12.03%. The national cumulative sugar sales increased by 152.10 million tons to 811.38 million tons, an increase of 23.07% [22]. Cotton Industry - Futures Market: The price of the 2509 contract increased by 40 yuan/ton to 13680 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%. The price of the 2601 contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 13880 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%. The price of the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.56 cents/pound to 66.36 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.84% [23]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 15047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The CC Index of 3128B decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 15161 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% [23]. - Industry Data: The commercial inventory decreased by 35.26 million tons to 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 13.9%. The industrial inventory increased by 1.63 million tons to 89.84 million tons, an increase of 1.8% [23]. Egg Industry - Futures Market: The price of the 09 contract decreased by 91 yuan/500KG to 3271 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.71%. The price of the 10 contract decreased by 73 yuan/500KG to 3184 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.24% [26]. - Spot Market: The egg price in the production area increased by 0.19 yuan/jin to 3.11 yuan/jin, an increase of 6.47%. The basis increased by 280 yuan/500KG to - 157 yuan/500KG, an increase of 64.13% [26]. - Industry Data: The price of egg - laying hen chicks remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/feather. The price of culled hens decreased by 0.21 yuan/jin to 5.67 yuan/jin, a decrease of 3.57% [26].