大越期货甲醇早报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations. The inland market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with recent restarts of previously shut - down plants increasing supply, but low inventory levels and external procurement needs from CTO enterprises in the northwest supporting the market. It is expected to fluctuate strongly this week. The port market has obvious supply - demand contradictions, with concentrated shipments from Iran and shutdown of large olefin plants at ports, leading to expected continuous inventory accumulation. The short - term futures market has some support but limited upward momentum. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 expected to trade between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Inland supply increases due to restart of plants, but low inventory and external procurement needs maintain a tight balance. The port is expected to see continuous inventory accumulation. The market is affected by traditional demand off - season and cost transmission difficulties. The futures market has support from policy - related speculation on coking coal and coke, but limited upward movement [5]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a basis of 21 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, a cumulative increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The overall available methanol supply in coastal areas has increased by 13.20 tons to 49.83 tons [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with a reduction in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 trading between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); methanol production in Iran has decreased; port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Negative Factors: Previously shut - down plants have restarted (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season; MTBE production has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in different regions has shown different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu has a weekly change of 0.04%, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged. The futures closing price has increased by 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous value, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased by 1400 to 10088 [8][9]. - Spread Structure: The basis, import spread, and regional spreads have all changed. For example, the basis has decreased by 12 yuan/ton, and the import spread has increased by 3 yuan/ton [8]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions such as Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 8.60 tons to 51.08 tons, and the inventory in South China ports has increased by 6.70 tons to 29.25 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [56]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. Some plants in other countries are operating normally, while some are in maintenance or have low operating rates [57]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, while others are operating stably or have plans for future maintenance or production increases [58].