Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Precious Metals: Domestic spot gold slightly rose by 0.14% to 783.18 yuan/gram. Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and long - term central bank gold - buying, but with a temporary cooling of safe - haven demand. The market sentiment is cautious [3]. - Copper: The fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand but are supported by macro expectations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation weakens the US dollar, and China's July export data boosts market sentiment. Supply concerns are raised by the mine shutdown, while consumption shows resilience. The spot premium reflects tight circulation [14]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term (20300 - 20800 yuan/ton) and may rise in the medium term. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the market may shift to cost - based pricing [34]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand but are supported by macro expectations. High processing fees drive production growth, and social inventories increase. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation provides support, but the industry's over - supply problem remains [60]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel - stainless steel market shows an oscillating trend. The cost of nickel - iron provides support, while the support from nickel ore is loosening [74]. - Tin: The fundamentals remain weak in supply and demand. The复产 expectations of tin mines are rising, but short - term supply is insufficient. Downstream consumption is suppressed by the off - season, and market sentiment is cautious due to tariff uncertainties [89]. - Lithium Carbonate: The shutdown of the mining end affects lithium supply, tightening the market. However, downstream inventory replenishment may limit the rise of spot prices. The futures market is more volatile [104]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are unchanged. The approval of the second batch of polysilicon registered brands boosts future demand. Industrial silicon is expected to be in an oscillating and strengthening state, and polysilicon futures will be in a wide - range oscillation [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Movement: Domestic spot gold rose 0.14% to 783.18 yuan/gram [3]. - Influencing Factors: Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and long - term central bank gold - buying, with a temporary cooling of safe - haven demand. The US dollar and geopolitical policies are core influencing factors [3]. Copper - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are both weak, but macro expectations provide support. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation weakens the US dollar, and China's July export data boosts sentiment. The social inventory of Shanghai copper increases to 8.19 tons but remains low. The mine shutdown causes supply concerns, and the rebound of the operating rate shows consumption resilience [14]. - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and London copper 3M show increases, with daily price changes and increases ranging from 0.68% to 1.01% [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum: In the short term, it will fluctuate at a high level (20300 - 20800 yuan/ton). In the medium term, it may rise as the peak season approaches and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates [34]. - Alumina: Supply is expected to be in surplus, and the market may shift to cost - based pricing. The high - cost area's full cost of 3000 - 3150 yuan/ton can be seen as a support level [34]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The fundamentals are good, with scrap aluminum prices providing support and short - term demand being acceptable. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [35]. Zinc - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are weak, but macro expectations provide support. High processing fees drive production growth, and social inventories increase for seven consecutive weeks to 6.59 tons. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation provides support, but the over - supply problem remains [60]. - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc show increases, with daily price changes and increases ranging from 0.33% to 0.5% [61]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Trend: The nickel - stainless steel market shows an oscillating trend. The cost of nickel - iron provides support, while the support from nickel ore is loosening [74]. - Price and Volume Data: The prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures show different changes, and trading volume and open interest also change accordingly [75]. Tin - Fundamentals: The fundamentals remain weak in supply and demand. The复产 expectations of tin mines are rising, but short - term supply is insufficient. Downstream consumption is suppressed by the off - season, and market sentiment is cautious due to tariff uncertainties [89]. - Price Data: The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures and London tin show different changes, with daily price changes and increases ranging from - 0.68% to 0.22% [90]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Influence: The shutdown of the mining end affects lithium supply, tightening the market. However, downstream inventory replenishment may limit the rise of spot prices. The futures market is more volatile [104]. - Price Data: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot show significant increases, with daily and weekly price changes [105][110]. Silicon Industry Chain - Market Outlook: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are unchanged. The approval of the second batch of polysilicon registered brands boosts future demand. Industrial silicon is expected to be in an oscillating and strengthening state, and polysilicon futures will be in a wide - range oscillation [116]. - Price Data: The prices of industrial silicon spot and futures show increases, with daily price increases ranging from 0.51% to 3.33% [117][118].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250812
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:44