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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:40

Group 1: Methanol - The methanol price followed coal price fluctuations this week, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in the process of inventory accumulation, high imports, and normal valuation, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - From August 5th to 11th, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the江苏 spot price decreased by 9 to 2374, the华南 spot price decreased by 3 to 2375, and the西北 discounted price increased by 13 to 2703 [2] Group 2: Polyethylene - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year, with upstream accumulation and coal - chemical de - stocking. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral, with a 09 basis of about - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 820, the Northeast LL price increased by 10 to 7200, the East LL price increased by 10 to 7310, and the East LD price increased by 15 to 9490. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt increased by 400 to 6282 [6] Group 3: Polypropylene - For polypropylene, upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is accumulating, while mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 800, and export is good. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and downstream orders are average [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Shandong propylene increased by 220 to 6500, Northeast Asia propylene remained at 740, the East PP price increased by 10 to 7030, and the North PP price decreased by 22 to 7018. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt remained at 12540 [6] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride - The PVC basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2350, Shandong caustic soda remained at 837, the calcium - carbide - method East price remained at 4930, and the ethylene - method East price remained at 5500 [6]