Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Copper prices are expected to be supported by the potential implementation of US interest rate cuts within the year, and the spot market is not expected to be a drag. Therefore, it is recommended to buy copper on dips [11] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Copper prices rose. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79,020. Weak US employment data led Fed officials to turn dovish, and the market is betting on a 0.5 - percentage - point interest rate cut this year. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 has boosted market risk appetite [11] - In the spot market, the price of electrolytic copper increased by 620 to 79,150, and the spot premium rose 30 to 150. As the delivery approaches, domestic spot supply is tight, and the spot premium remains high. Social inventories decreased slightly by 0.04 million tons compared to last Thursday. The premiums of US - dollar copper bills of lading and warehouse receipts both declined, and the import loss narrowed to around 100, with the import window approaching opening. It is expected that the tight domestic spot supply will gradually ease with the import supplement [11] - Codelco partially restarted the El Teniente copper mine, and the disruption at the mine end has eased [11] 2. Industry News - Codelco has obtained approval from the mining regulatory agency to partially restart 10 operating areas of the El Teniente copper mine, while four areas near the July 31 collapse site will remain closed [12] - The SMM copper terminal PMI in July was 47.81%, and it is expected to drop to 47.49% in August. The production index and new order index both decreased month - on - month, the product inventory index increased slightly, indicating a further contraction in production activities and market demand and increasing inventory pressure [12] - The Central Bank of Chile reported that Chile's copper export value in July was $3.99 billion, a 0.4% decrease from the same period last year, and the trade deficit in that month was $62 million [12] - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.95%. From January to July, China's cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrates were 17.314 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.04% [12]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250812
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:42