建信期货铝日报-20250812

Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the easing expectation supports the aluminum price to fluctuate strongly. The main contract closed at 20,700, up 0.15%. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 20, and the aluminum ingot continued to accumulate inventory. The spot premium remained stable. Considering the off - season effect and the suppression of terminal consumption by high prices, the previous high resistance is strong, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - The operating capacity of alumina continues to rise, while the production demand for electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, and the supply is still relatively surplus. Before the "anti - involution" policy is clearly implemented, the upside space should be carefully evaluated. If there is a high point, short - selling can be considered [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. Although the off - season is approaching the second half, it still shows off - season characteristics, and the inventory continues to increase seasonally. The smelting enterprises have rich profits [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation boosts the aluminum price. The main contract price increased by 0.15% to 20,700. The 08 - 09 premium was 20, and the aluminum ingot inventory continued to accumulate. The spot premium was stable, with prices in East China, Central China, and South China reported at - 50, - 160, and - 55 respectively [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following the Shanghai aluminum price. The AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight due to reduced new material output in the off - season and high - temperature suppression of disassembly volume. The downstream automotive industry was also in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance. The cast aluminum market continued to operate within a range [8]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum production was stable, leading to a supply surplus. Before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, short - selling can be considered at high points [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high. Although the off - season was in the second half, the inventory continued to increase seasonally. Considering the off - season effect and high - price suppression of consumption, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [8]. 2. Industry News - Overseas Bauxite Mining Rights Changes: On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The previous GAC mining area of 690.20 square kilometers has been granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 1.4 billion tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [9][10]. - New Aluminum Recycling Plant: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The new plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots per year. It is expected to reach full - capacity production in the first quarter of 2026. UAE's EGA acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024 and plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma [10]. - Mining Rights Change: The mining rights of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dayuantao Bauxite Mine have been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons per year [10]. - Vedanta's Q1 2026 Financial Results: Despite strong local demand, Vedanta's quarterly profit did not meet expectations due to falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. In Q1 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), but the net profit decreased by 11.7% to 31.85 billion rupees [10]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, the export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 206.6%. The net import in June was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10][11]