建信期货钢材日评-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 11, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded. After the implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan, the spot market transactions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region became active, and market expectations improved. The steel futures market, which had significantly declined at the end of July and early August, turned upward again recently. It is recommended to view the market with a bullish bias in the short term, but pay attention to the impact of the stock market and risk appetite on the black commodity market [7][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review: On August 11, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2510 oscillated and rebounded, recovering about half of the decline since July 31 and most of the decline since July 30 respectively. Most of the main rebar and hot-rolled coil spot market prices rose. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts showed divergent trends, with the J and K values turning upward and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts narrowed [7][9]. - Future Outlook: Tangshan's production restrictions from August 16 to September 3 will affect the daily output of 35 billet-rolling section steel enterprises by about 90,000 tons. If the inhibitory effect of production restrictions on raw material demand is less than the boosting effect of increased steel profits, the market may strengthen again in the short term. It is recommended to view the market with a bullish bias before mid-August, and pay attention to the follow-up rise of the raw material market and the impact of the stock market and risk appetite on the black commodity market [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Economic Data: In July, the national industrial producer prices and purchase prices decreased month-on-month, but the decline narrowed. The CPI was flat year-on-year and rose 0.4% month-on-month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, and the month-on-month decline narrowed for the first time since March [12]. - Industry Policy: The market competition order of industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium battery has been continuously optimized, and the prices of production materials have improved marginally [12]. - Company News: As of July, 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity and 147 steel enterprises in China have completed the whole-process ultra-low emission transformation. The global steel demand has entered a stage of slow growth or even local decline, and steel enterprises are actively seeking transformation and upgrading. Some steel enterprises' performance has improved, and the industry's profitability has recovered [12]. - International News: The average tariff rate in the United States has reached 20.1%, the highest level since the early 1910s. Mongolia's coal exports from January to July decreased by 6.58% year-on-year, and Russia's seaborne coal exports in July increased by 2.65% month-on-month and 0.15% year-on-year. BHP will form an alliance to explore the development opportunities of CCUS technology in Asia [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on the spot prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization rates of rebar and hot-rolled coil, as well as the basis between Shanghai spot prices and October contracts [15][20][23].