摩根士丹利研究关键预测-Morgan Stanley Research Key Forecasts

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the US labor market and global growth, indicating a potential step-down in real GDP growth for the US from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that US employment growth is moderating faster than expected, signaling downside risks to the labor market [2]. - It anticipates a rise in core goods inflation, projecting the core CPI inflation rate for July to reach 3.04% year-over-year [2]. - Global growth is expected to decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2025, influenced by tariff shocks and restrictive trade policies [7]. Economic Forecasts - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US projected at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, while the Euro Area is also expected to grow at 1.0% in 2025 [8]. - Inflation rates are forecasted to be 3.0% for the US in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, while the Euro Area is expected to see inflation rates of 2.1% and 1.8% respectively [8]. Equity Market Outlook - The report suggests a preference for quality cyclical stocks and large-cap defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations in the US market [5]. - In Europe, it recommends focusing on resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Fixed Income and Currency Strategy - The report indicates an overweight position in core fixed income and a cautious stance on other fixed income assets, anticipating Treasury yields to remain range-bound until late 2025 [3][13]. - The US dollar is expected to face pressure, with the DXY projected to fall 9% to 91 by mid-2026 due to rising policy uncertainty and increased FX-hedging ratios [13]. Commodity Insights - The report notes that oil prices are expected to face downside risks due to a projected surplus, with Brent prices likely not falling below $60 per barrel [15]. - European gas and global LNG prices are anticipated to remain range-bound, although there may be marginal upside due to rising competition for available LNG [16]. - The report favors gold and silver amidst further USD weakness and rising inflation [17].