永安期货集运早报-20250812

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - Fundamentally, in the second week of August (week33), the MSK alliance had better performance, while the OA and PA alliances had poor performance in terms of receiving goods; the goods - receiving situation in week34 significantly weakened [2][17] - EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35 this week, and OA added new operations in week39. The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended operations, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [2][17] - From the perspective of the market, the current 10 - contract is at a discount to the spot, which has not led to a further decline in the market; the 12 - contract is given the attribute of the peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions supports it. However, the overall future drive is downward, and there is still some room for valuation. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the 10 - contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - For EC2508, the closing price was 2080.0, with a change of +0.43%, trading volume of 242, and open interest of 3330 with a change of - 102 [2][17] - For EC2510, the closing price was 1408.8, with a change of - 1.89%, trading volume of 44961, and open interest of 56688 with a change of +86 [2][17] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1750.0, with a change of - 0.57%, trading volume of 5/74 (might be a data error), and open interest of 10238 with a change of +33 [2][17] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1517.1, with a change of - 0.87%, trading volume of 1471, and open interest of 4202 with a change of +67 [2][17] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1344.9, with a change of - 0.60%, trading volume of 822, and open interest of 5295 with a change of - 108 [2][17] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1497.1, with a change of +0.44%, trading volume of 136, and open interest of 770 with a change of +30 [2][17] 2. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a day - on - day change of +36.2 and a week - on - week change of - 4.6 [2][17] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a day - on - day change of - 17.2 and a week - on - week change of - 63.7 [2][17] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9, with a day - on - day change of +3.3 and a week - on - week change of +34.8 [2][17] 3. Index Data - The SCHIS index on August 11, 2025, was 2235.48 points, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period and - 0.81% in the previous change [2][17] - The SCF (European route) index on August 8, 2025, was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a change of - 4.39% compared to the previous period and - 1.87% in the previous change [2][17] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, was 1799.05 points, with a change of +0.53% compared to the previous period and +0.13% in the previous change [2][17] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, was 1257.71 points, with a change of - 8.37% compared to the previous period and - 3.3% in the previous change [2][17] 4. Recent European Route Quotation - The average quotation in week33 was about 3150 US dollars (equivalent to about 2200 points on the disk). Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). In week34, the quotations of various shipping companies dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance's quotation was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and the OA alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3][18] - In week35, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars [3][18] 5. News - On August 12, China and the US once again suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days [3][18] - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City" [4][19] - On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new Gaza cease - fire plan, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the Gaza cease - fire negotiation [4][19]