广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250812

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash remains in an obvious oversupply situation, with weakening spot sales recently. In the medium term, after the PV glass capacity growth slows down and the float glass capacity stabilizes, there is still pressure on supply and demand, and there may be further cold repair expectations. It is recommended to wait for a new opportunity to short. [1] - The glass market has seen a significant weakening in the recent market sentiment, and the spot sales have also declined sharply. The inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - men, and the overall spot price is difficult to increase further. It is recommended to hold short positions. [1] Industrial Silicon - Driven by the good atmosphere in the commodity market, industrial silicon has risen. In August, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. If the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, it is advisable to try long positions. [2] Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is larger, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon is expected to rise again; otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipts. It is advisable to try long positions at low prices and buy put options to try short positions at high prices. [3] Natural Rubber - In the short term, the positive factors on the supply side are concentrated, and the spot inventory continues to decline. The rubber price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short at high prices if the raw material supply in the peak - production season is smooth. [4] Logs - From a fundamental perspective, last week, due to the reduction of available goods in some specifications and the reluctance of traders to sell, the spot price was continuously raised. The demand remains strong, and the inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China have all declined, while the futures prices of glass 2505 and 2509 have increased. The 05 basis has decreased. [1] - Soda ash: The prices in North China, East China, and Central China remain unchanged, while the price in Northwest China has decreased. The futures prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 have increased, and the 05 basis has decreased. [1] Supply - The soda ash production rate and weekly output have increased, while the float glass daily melting volume and PV glass daily melting volume remain unchanged. [1] Inventory - The glass inventory and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories have all increased, while the glass factory's soda ash inventory days remain unchanged. [1] Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased, while the growth rate of under - construction area has decreased significantly. [1] Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon have all increased, while the corresponding bases have decreased. [2] Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2510 - 2511, and 2511 - 2512 have decreased, while the spreads of 2509 - 2510 and 2512 - 2601 have increased. [2] Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output, national and regional production rates, and exports have increased, while the organic silicon DMC output has decreased. [2] Inventory - The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, while the Sichuan factory inventory and social inventory have increased slightly. [2] Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and other products remain unchanged, while the N - type material basis has decreased significantly. [3] Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract price has increased, while the spreads of "current month - first - continuous" and "first - continuous - second - continuous" have changed significantly. [3] Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly polysilicon production, export volume, and net export volume have increased, while the import volume has decreased. The silicon wafer production has changed in different periods. [3] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory, silicon wafer inventory, and polysilicon warehouse receipts have all increased. [3] Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber have increased, while the prices of cup rubber, glue, and some raw materials in Xishuangbanna have dropped to zero. The basis and non - standard price difference have decreased. [4] Monthly Spread - The spreads of 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 have decreased, while the spread of 5 - 9 has increased. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of Thailand and India increased, while the production of Indonesia decreased. The tire production and natural rubber import volume in China increased, while the tire export volume decreased. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber have changed. [4] Inventory - The bonded area inventory has decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory has increased. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have changed. [4] Logs Futures and Spot Price - The prices of log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 have increased, while the basis has decreased. The spot prices of some radiation pine and spruce in ports remain unchanged or increase slightly. The new round of foreign quotation remains unchanged. [5] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and the import theoretical cost remain unchanged. [5] Monthly Data - The port shipping volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea have decreased. [5] Inventory - The inventory in major ports in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu has decreased. [5] Demand - The daily average outbound volume in China remains unchanged, with a slight increase in Shandong and a slight decrease in Jiangsu. [5]