瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The precious metals market is under pressure and has corrected due to the optimistic expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which has led to a phased decline in safe - haven buying demand. The inflation data will be a key factor in assessing the Fed's policy adjustment needs after the unexpectedly weak employment report. The market's bet on a Fed rate cut in September remains high, and the potential downward trend of real interest rates in the medium - term is potentially positive for the gold price. If the July US CPI shows an obvious impact of tariffs on inflation, the Fed's rate - cut window may be further opened, which will put pressure on the gold price. In the medium - term, factors such as the risk of inflation rebound due to tariff implementation, the expectation of the Fed's loose policy, the damage to the US dollar's credit, and the resilience of central bank gold - buying demand still provide strong support, and the bullish logic remains intact, pushing up the gold price center. Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors should maintain the idea of buying on dips and pay attention to risk control. The focus ranges for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract are 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract are 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 776.04 yuan/gram, down 3.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9187 yuan/kilogram, down 23 yuan [2] - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 204,736 lots, down 6908 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 349,123 lots, down 9578 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 165,867 lots, down 6005 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 117,755 lots, down 649 lots [2] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 36,045 kilograms, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 1,151,209 kilograms, down 753 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 774 yuan/gram, down 4.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9134 yuan/kilogram, down 50 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 2.04 yuan/gram, down 1.06 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 53 yuan/kilogram, down 27 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings were 964.22 tons, up 4.58 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,058.6 tons, up 67.8 tons [2] - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 237,050 contracts, up 13,454 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 50,658 contracts, down 8749 contracts [2] - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.88%, up 0.17%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.12%, up 0.29% [2] - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 19.97%, up 1.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 19.97%, up 1.28% [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Starting from August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for another 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [2] - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The Trump administration is considering including Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan as candidates. The White House is expected to announce the Fed Chair candidate this fall [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.9%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 39.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 55.1% [2]