瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The price of industrial silicon dropped slightly after failing to break through 9,000 yuan, and it is expected to have some further downward momentum. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the main contract position is 278,860 lots, up 6,917 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,979 lots, down 3,564 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,340 lots, down 135 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 30 yuan, down 15 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 560 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrode (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; industrial silicon monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, up 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that by 2025, the cumulative decommissioned photovoltaic modules in the country will reach about 9GW, and the decommissioned modules in that year will exceed 2.7GW, equivalent to about 210,000 - 270,000 tons of waste. The Photovoltaic Recycling Industry Development Cooperation Center of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance Photovoltaic Special Committee predicted that by 2030, the cumulative decommissioned scale of national photovoltaic modules will reach 1 million tons, and 12 million tons by 2040 [2] 3.7 Supply - demand Analysis - On the supply side, in the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to increase, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase week - on - week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits affected by the previous low prices, and the overall output remains relatively stable. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The demand in the organic silicon market has recovered and increased, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid support for industrial silicon. However, the price of polysilicon has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices decline, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, with little impetus to the demand for industrial silicon [2]