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瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250812
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-12 08:50

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly for two consecutive days. The pricing stability has a restorative effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. The market's focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. Some listed companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but be vigilant against the drag on index performance from the profit decline of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. The S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating also boosts market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4131.2, up 21.0; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4144.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2809.6, up 17.0; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2809.8, up 17.4. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6342.6, up 33.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6409.2, up 33.0. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 6883.6, up 21.2; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6954.2, up 21.2 [2] - IF-IH current month contract spread is 1334.6, up 7.0; IC-IF current month contract spread is 2264.8, up 12.6. IM-IC current month contract spread is 545.0, down 12.4; IC-IH current month contract spread is 3599.4, up 19.6. IM-IF current month contract spread is 2809.8, up 0.2; IM-IH current month contract spread is 4144.4, up 7.2 [2] - IF current quarter - current month is -42.4, down 1.6; IF next quarter - current month is -74.8, down 3.4. IH current quarter - current month is 1.6, down 1.0; IH next quarter - current month is 1.2, down 0.8. IC current quarter - current month is -219.2, up 4.4; IC next quarter - current month is -357.6, up 4.6. IM current quarter - current month is -260.0, up 1.8; IM next quarter - current month is -442.2, up 4.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is -26,597.00, up 1315.0; IH top 20 net position is -17,108.00, up 424.0. IC top 20 net position is -15,559.00, up 1313.0; IM top 20 net position is -52,263.00, down 494.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4143.83, up 21.3; IF main contract basis is -12.6, up 5.1. SSE 50 is 2807.01, up 17.1; IH main contract basis is 2.6, up 3.1. CSI 500 is 6418.16, up 26.4; IC main contract basis is -75.6, up 17.4. CSI 1000 A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 6963.61, up 19.7; IM main contract basis is +552.93, up 166.82. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,261.98, up 12.7 [2] - Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2270.00, up 261.04; Reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) is -1607.0, up 1146.0 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) is +76.53 yesterday, -376.99 today. MLF data not provided. Rising stock ratio (daily, %) is 38.45, down 38.81. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged [2] - IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 15.00, up 3.00; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 22.80, down 19.60; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31 [2] - CSI 300 index 20-day volatility (%) is 9.80, up 0.08; Volume PCR (%) is 57.21, up 1.86. Position PCR (%) is 76.85, up 1.74 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 5.10, down 2.30; Technical aspect score is 3.80, down 3.90. Capital aspect score is 6.40, down 0.70 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, rising for two consecutive months [2] - In July, CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year-on-year. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pending: China's July financial data. On August 12 at 20:30, the US July CPI and core CPI. On August 14 at 20:30, the US July PPI and core PPI. On August 15 at 10:00, China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data [3]