瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses showed inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate expanding month - on - month. The inflow of overseas goods to the port remained low, the overall inflow rate decreased month - on - month, while some tire companies continued to replenish goods slightly, and the previous orders were gradually picked up, leading to an increase in the overall outflow rate month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some all - steel tire enterprises resumed work and moderately increased production, but some enterprises still scheduled maintenance, restricting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation range [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 3,195 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 125,703 lots, up 790 lots; the position of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 54,903 lots, down 855 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 36,925 lots, up 1,705 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 9,080 lots, up 439 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 180,240 tons, up 4,800 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange were 46,166 tons, up 3,326 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,853 yuan/ton, up 183 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 188 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.96 Thai baht/kg, up 0.76 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 48.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 20.58%, up 0.08 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 17.47%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 10th to 16th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on tapping operations. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which also increased the impact on tapping operations [2]. - As of August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inflow rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outflow rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inflow rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outflow rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].