中国房地产行业市场月报8P：6月新房供应微增、成交微降，地市量价齐增-20250812

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The new housing market saw a slight increase in supply by 5% month-on-month in June 2025, while transaction volume decreased by 4% [3][20] - The inventory level continues to decline, with a supply-demand ratio of 0.8, indicating a downward trend in inventory [21] - The market is expected to maintain low transaction volumes in July, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a low base from the previous year [10][22] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - In June 2025, the new housing supply in 30 monitored cities was approximately 852 million square meters, reflecting a 5% month-on-month increase but a 21% year-on-year decrease [25][20] - The inventory in 30 cities was 21,969 million square meters, showing a 1% month-on-month decline and a 9.4% year-on-year decline [21] Transaction Volume - The transaction volume in June 2025 was 1,067 million square meters, down 4% month-on-month and down 23% year-on-year [20][33] - Cumulatively, the transaction volume for the first half of 2025 was 6,169 million square meters, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [20][33] Market Dynamics - The average opening absorption rate in June was 41%, indicating a slight recovery compared to May [38] - Core first and second-tier cities are expected to remain hot markets, particularly in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, while third and fourth-tier cities are likely to continue a bottoming-out trend [10][22] Policy Environment - The central government is expected to implement stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market in the second half of the year, including financial support for demand-side policies [16][17] - Local governments have also introduced various policies to support housing consumption and stabilize the market [18]