广发期货日评-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures varieties based on their market conditions and influencing factors, including macro - news, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The strategies range from short - term trading to long - term position - holding, and different trading strategies such as bull - spread, option trading, and spread trading are proposed for different situations [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: After the second round of Sino - US trade talks extended tariff exemptions and the Politburo meeting, the TMT sector led the upward movement, and small and medium - cap stocks rose significantly. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price near 6300 on MO2509 and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and focusing on Sino - US talks and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies can appropriately bet on short - term trading opportunities. Short - term treasury bond futures may fluctuate within a range waiting for a direction [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold price fluctuations increase due to macro - news, but there is still a possibility of a pulse rise. It is recommended to build a bull - spread portfolio using gold call options at a low price after a correction. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate within a range with upward potential. Use silver put options to build a bull - spread strategy at a relatively low position to earn premium income [2]. - Shipping Index Futures: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling approach [2]. Black Futures - Steel Products: Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. Iron ore prices follow steel prices, and it is recommended to go long on dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. Coking coal prices can be bought on dips, and coke prices can also be bought on dips as there is still an expectation of price increases [2]. Non - ferrous Metals Futures - Copper: The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78000 - 79500 [2]. - Alumina: The warehouse receipt volume has increased, and the medium - term oversupply trend remains unchanged, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3400 [2]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices fluctuate within a narrow range, and the spot market is weak with a large discount. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 21000 [2]. - Other Non - ferrous Metals: For other non - ferrous metals such as zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel, they are expected to have different price trends and trading strategies according to their respective fundamentals [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude Oil: The market focuses on the progress of US - Russia leadership negotiations, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait for the geopolitical situation to become clearer before going long on dips. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [3]. - Other Chemical Products: For products like urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc., different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and price trends [3]. Agricultural Futures - Grains and Oils: For soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand changes, export expectations, and inventory levels [3]. - Other Agricultural Products: For products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, etc., trading suggestions are given based on their market conditions [3]. Special and New Energy Futures - Special Commodities: For glass, rubber, industrial silicon, etc., trading strategies are proposed according to their market trends and influencing factors [3]. - New Energy Commodities: For polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc., trading suggestions are provided based on their price movements and market news [3].