大越期货油脂早报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,558, with a basis of 82, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,450 - 8,650 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,268, with a basis of 128, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,906, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Negative Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].