大越期货纯碱早报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,409 yuan/ton, and the basis is -134 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [2][34]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low-end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,345 | 1,235 | -110 | | Current Value | 1,409 | 1,275 | -134 | | Change Rate | 4.76% | 3.24% | 21.82% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co-production method in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.41%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new production capacity of soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - Float Glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19% [28]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in-production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].