沪锌期货早报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of zinc show a mixed picture, with some factors being bullish and others neutral or bearish. The overall expectation for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to oscillate and strengthen [2]. - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and rise, with a shrinking volume and both long and short positions reducing, but the short - side reducing more. The short - term market may oscillate and consolidate, and technically, the price is above the moving average system, with the short - term indicator KDJ rising and running in the strong zone, while the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing and the short - side strength is increasing, with the short - side having a slight advantage [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is - 100 with a spot price of 22530, being neutral [2]. - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 274 tons to 15768 tons, being neutral [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating and rising trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, which is bullish [2]. - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Zinc Futures Market on August 12 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on August 12 varied by delivery month. For example, the 2509 contract had a trading volume of 79971 lots and a turnover of 901564490 yuan [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market on August 12 - The prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market on August 12 showed different trends. Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; zinc ingot was 22530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet was 4120 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe was 4512 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7729 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From July 31 to August 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 84400 tons to 99000 tons. Compared with August 4, it increased by 11800 tons, and compared with August 7, it increased by 7700 tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 12 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on August 12 were 15768 tons, an increase of 274 tons. Guangdong had 5482 tons with an increase of 225 tons, and Tianjin had 10286 tons with an increase of 49 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory on August 12 - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons [2][7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price on August 12 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic regions on August 12 was mostly 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, except in Hechi (16960 yuan/ton) and Longnan (17110 yuan/ton) [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on August 12 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters on August 12 all decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22290 yuan/ton (Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium) to 22920 yuan/ton (Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry) [12]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470300 tons [14]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on August 12 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions on August 12 ranged from 3400 to 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 12 - The total trading volume of zinc contracts among members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 12 was 126968 lots, a decrease of 8228 lots. The total long position was 57632 lots, a decrease of 3363 lots, and the total short position was 56690 lots, a decrease of 5486 lots [17].