大越期货白糖早报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the sugar industry. 2. Core View - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying predictions, such as StoneX forecasting a surplus of 304 tons after a 70 - ton downward adjustment [4][8]. - In the domestic market, consumption is good, inventory is decreasing, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change in the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global increase in sugar production, the expected supply surplus in the new season, and the opening of the import profit window due to low international sugar prices are negative factors [6]. - Concerns about a decline in Brazilian production led to a short - term rebound in international sugar prices at night, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar (01) followed the rebound. The August China sugar supply - demand balance sheet from the Ministry of Agriculture is the same as last month's forecast, and the 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade in the range of 5600 - 5700 in the short term [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review The document does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: StoneX predicts a 70 - ton downward adjustment in the global sugar supply surplus to 304 tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.32 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6010, and the basis for the 01 contract is 402, indicating a premium over futures [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 304.83 tons [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear [5]. - Expectation: Concerns about a decline in Brazilian production led to a short - term rebound in international sugar prices at night, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar (01) followed the rebound. The August China sugar supply - demand balance sheet from the Ministry of Agriculture is the same as last month's forecast, and the 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade in the range of 5600 - 5700 in the short term [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus The document does not contain content related to today's focus. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 270 tons, USDA predicts a surplus of 1139.7 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780 tons, and Datagro predicts a surplus of 258 tons [35]. - China Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The sugar - producing area, yield, import, consumption, and other indicators in the 2024/25, 2023/24, and 2025/26 seasons are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season (August forecast), the sugar production is expected to be 1120 tons, import is 500 tons, and consumption is 1590 tons [37]. - Import Cost: The refined duty - paid cost of imported raw sugar processed with a 50% tariff from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, showing the impact of different market events on costs [42]. 3.5 Position Data The document does not contain content related to position data.