焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-13）-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal has not fully recovered as coal mines in production areas are experiencing a mix of shutdowns and restarts. The market is in a state where prices are fluctuating, with some over - inflated coal prices dropping. The overall haulage is fair, and coal mines have relatively low inventory pressure. With high - level iron ore production providing strong support for raw material demand, but considering the game between steel and coke after the sixth round of coke price increases and cautious purchasing by steel and coking enterprises for high - priced coal, the short - term price of coking coal is expected to be on the strong side [2]. - For Coke: The cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased as raw coal prices have declined, but the overall capacity release remains limited. Due to the military parade, Shandong coking plants have received oral notices for environmental production restrictions of 30 - 50%, further constraining coke supply. With stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price of coke is expected to be stable and on the strong side [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Supply has not fully recovered, prices are fluctuating, and the overall haulage is good with low inventory pressure at coal mines; bullish [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1200, basis is - 113, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [2]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: With high - level iron ore production, raw material demand is strongly supported. However, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there is a game between steel and coke, and purchasing of high - priced coal is cautious. Short - term price is expected to be strong [2]. Daily Views - Coke - Fundamentals: Cost pressure has eased, but capacity release is limited. Shandong coking plants are facing production restrictions, further constraining supply; bullish [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 1630, basis is - 182, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [5]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [5]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [5]. - Expectation: With tightening supply and stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price is expected to be stable and strong [5]. Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Bullish Factors: Increase in iron ore production and limited supply growth [4]. - Bearish Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by steel and coking enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Factors Affecting Coke - Bullish Factors: Increase in iron ore production and rising blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish Factors: Squeezed profit margins in steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [7]. Inventory Data - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [19]. - Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [24]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].