棉花早报-20250813

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Morning Report - August 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The 01 contract of cotton may fluctuate around 14,000. The overall situation is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral - to - slightly bullish bias in some aspects but also facing bearish factors [4]. - The fundamental situation of cotton shows a balance between supply and demand. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No specific information provided 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to ICAC's August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. USDA's July report shows a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons in 2025/26. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,177 yuan, with a basis of 1,197 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectations: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, lower than market expectations. July's textile export data is not ideal. It is currently the consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Likely Positive Factors: Reduced previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Postponed trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Balance (USDA): In 2025/26 (July forecast), global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and export trends [9][10]. - Global Supply - Demand Balance (ICAC): In 2025/26, global production is 25.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons or 1.6%), consumption is 25.6 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons or 1.6%), global trade volume is 9.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons or 3.9%), and the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - China's Supply - Demand Balance (Ministry of Agriculture): In 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [13]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data information provided other than the general description of the main position being bullish with a decreasing net long position [4]