沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation shows a complex mix of factors, with a medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remaining unchanged [3][4]. - 不锈钢: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 沪镍 Daily View - 基本面: The external market first declined and then rebounded, with support at the 20 - day moving average. Last week, there was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs, increasing supply. The nickel ore price is stable, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, and the cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. The stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has decreased. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, which is bearish [4]. - 基差: The spot price is 123,500, and the basis is 1,060, which is bullish [4]. - 库存: The LME inventory is 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,693 (a decrease of 30), which is bearish [4]. - 盘面: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - 主力持仓: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. 不锈钢 Daily View - 基本面: The spot stainless steel price has increased. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, the ocean freight has decreased slightly, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, the cost line has increased slightly, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased. The situation is neutral [5]. - 基差: The average stainless steel price is 13,887.5, and the basis is 687.5, which is bullish [5]. - 库存: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,940 (an increase of 904), which is bearish [5]. - 盘面: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - 结论: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. 多空因素 - 影响因素总结 - 利多因素: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8]. - 利空因素: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The nickel ore price is weakly stable, the ferronickel price is weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [8]. 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 - 期货 prices: On August 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,440 (an increase of 310 compared to August 11), the LME nickel was 15,360 (an increase of 35), and the stainless steel main contract was 13,200 (a decrease of 25). - 现货 prices: The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,500 (an increase of 650), and the average price of stainless steel was 13,887.5 [13][5]. 镍仓单、库存 - 镍库存: As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with the futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 12, the LME inventory was 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,693 (a decrease of 30) [15][16]. 不锈钢仓单、库存 - 不锈钢库存: On August 8, the Wuxi inventory was 61,620 tons, the Foshan inventory was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons month - on - month. On August 12, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,940 (an increase of 904) [19][20]. 镍矿、镍铁价格 - 镍矿价格: The CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% is 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% is 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from August 11. - 镍铁价格: The high - nickel ferronickel price is 921.5 yuan per nickel point (an increase of 2.5), and the low - nickel ferronickel price is 3,420 yuan per ton (an increase of 20) [23]. 不锈钢生产成本 - The traditional cost is 12,919, the scrap steel production cost is 13,699, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,510 [25]. 镍进口成本测算 The imported price is converted to 124,122 yuan per ton [28].