大越期货天胶早报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The spot price is 14,750, and the basis is - 1,100, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is relatively high. The tire production reached a new high in the same period, but the export of the tire industry declined, and automobile production and sales decreased seasonally [4][23][29][32]. - Price: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 12, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was mentioned but no specific data was given [8]. - Inventory: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly [14][17]. - Import: The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Negative Factors: Increasing supply and the non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6].