《特殊商品》日报-20250813

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market shows both supply and demand growth. Large - scale enterprises are resuming production, and the resumption of polysilicon and organic silicon production supports the demand side. The market is expected to reach a tight - balance state. However, inventory and order pressures are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is likely to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, investors can consider buying on dips. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, and investors should pay attention to the high position of the 09 contract and control positions and manage risks in advance [1]. Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is higher, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon prices may rise again. Otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipts. The main price fluctuation range is likely to be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. After the price returns to the lower edge of the cost range, investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to buy put options to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the high position of the 09 contract [2]. Soda Ash - The weekly production of soda ash has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation pattern, with an obvious overall surplus in the fundamentals. The spot sales have weakened recently. In the medium - term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, and the float glass production capacity is flat with supply - demand pressure in the future. There is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. Without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to wait for a new opportunity to short [3]. Glass - The glass market has seen continuous weakening in the recent market, with a significant weakening in spot transactions and a continuous negative feedback in the market. The inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - stream traders and futures - cash traders. The deep - processing orders are weak, and the rigid demand for glass is under pressure. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is recommended to stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for new opportunities [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, labor shortages in Cambodia and disrupted rubber - tapping in Thailand have led to stronger raw material procurement prices. On the demand side, the replacement demand has a good performance, and the market trading activity is expected to increase. The winter snow - tire agents are in the stocking stage, and the order activity is expected to rise. In the short - term, with the concentrated release of supply - side benefits and the continuous reduction of spot inventory, rubber prices are expected to be strong. Investors should pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas and consider shorting if the raw material supply is smooth [5]. Logs - The log futures were weak yesterday. The main benchmark delivery product's spot price remained unchanged, and the new round of foreign - market quotes remained the same. Last week, the inventory decreased significantly, and the demand remained flat. Fundamentally, the reduction of available goods of some specifications and the price increase of foreign - market quotes have supported the cost. The demand is strong, and the inventory has decreased due to less unloading at ports and strong outbound volume. The short - term market is expected to be strongly volatile, and investors are advised to buy on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On August 12, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 160 yuan/ton to 560 yuan/ton, a 40% increase. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis (based on SI4210) increased by 160 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton, a 320% increase. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase; the basis (Xinjiang) increased by 260 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a 52% increase [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 65 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a 100% increase; the spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, a 33.33% decrease; etc. [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production was 33.83 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons or 3.23% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production decreased by 2.70 million tons to 15.03 million tons, a 15.21% decrease; Yunnan's production increased by 2.49 million tons to 4.12 million tons, a 153.86% increase; Sichuan's production increased by 1.15 million tons to 4.85 million tons, a 31.05% increase. The national operating rate was 52.61%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points or 2.47% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.12 million tons to 11.69 million tons, a 1.02% decrease; the social inventory increased by 0.70 million tons to 54.70 million tons, a 1.30% increase [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On August 12, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 44,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 1,185 yuan/ton to - 4,800 yuan/ton, a 19.80% increase [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price decreased by 1,185 yuan/ton to 51,800 yuan/ton, a 2.24% decrease; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract increased by 1,280 yuan/ton to - 1,295 yuan/ton, a 49.71% increase [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.02 GW, an increase of 1.02 GW or 9.27% from the previous week; the monthly polysilicon production was 10.10 million tons, an increase of 0.49 million tons or 5.10% from the previous month [2]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.40 million tons to 23.30 million tons, a 1.75% increase; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.96 million GW to 19.11 million GW, a 5.29% increase [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation was 1,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East China quotation decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton, a 0.80% decrease; the 2505 contract price increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1,330 yuan/ton, a 1.60% increase; the 2509 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,073 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase [3]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Northwest quotation decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,050 yuan/ton, a 2.78% decrease; the 2505 contract price increased by 62 yuan/ton to 1,462 yuan/ton, a 4.43% increase; the 2509 contract price increased by 41 yuan/ton to 1,292 yuan/ton, a 2.93% increase [3]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate was 85.41%, an increase of 5.14 percentage points or 6.40% from the previous period; the weekly soda ash production was 74.47 million tons, an increase of 4.5 million tons or 6.42% [3]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 234,800 heavy boxes to 6,184,700 heavy boxes, a 3.95% increase; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 6.9 million tons to 186.51 million tons, a 3.86% increase [3]. Real - estate Data (Monthly Year - on - Year) - The new construction area decreased by 0.09% year - on - year, an improvement of 0.09 percentage points from the previous month; the construction area increased by 0.05% year - on - year, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On August 12, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous day; the whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 1,110 yuan/ton, a 5.21% decrease; the Thai standard mixed rubber quotation was 14,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 1.04% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 1,025 yuan/ton, a 4.06% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, a 14.29% increase [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production was 392,600 tons, an increase of 120,400 tons or 44.23% from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a decrease of 24,100 tons or - 12.03% [5]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory decreased by 8,614 tons to 631,770 tons, a 1.35% decrease; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,519 tons to 42,235 tons, a 6.34% increase [5]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 12, the price of the 2509 log contract was 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 8 yuan/cubic meter or 0.96% from the previous day; the price of the 2511 contract was 845.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 1 yuan/cubic meter or 0.12% [7]. Cost and Supply - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.191, an increase of 0.01 from the previous day; the import theoretical cost (calculated at a 15% volume increase) was 819.65 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.95 yuan/cubic meter. The port freight volume in July was 173.3 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.7 million cubic meters or 1.51% from June [7]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 8, the national log inventory was 308 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9 million cubic meters or 2.84% from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume was 6.42 million cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week [7].