大越期货玻璃早报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a volatile range in the short term due to the return of the "anti-involution" sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1219 yuan/ton to 1240 yuan/ton, a 1.72% increase. The spot price of Shahe safety large - size glass remained unchanged at 1104 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from -115 yuan/ton to -136 yuan/ton, a 18.26% change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1104 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No detailed content on cost side other than mentioning glass production profit, but no specific data presented. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 223, with an operating rate of 75.19%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level for the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [29][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, and the surplus was 1.51 million tons [43]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Negative factors: Weak real - estate terminal demand, low orders from deep - processing enterprises, poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry, cautious attitudes of traders and processors, and the fading of the "anti - involution" market sentiment [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, and downstream has carried out phased replenishment, resulting in a reduction in glass factory inventory. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly trade in a wide - range volatile manner [5].