大越期货沪铜早报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market is affected by various factors such as smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policies, PMI decline, inventory changes, and Fed rate - cut slowdown. The copper price is expected to have a shock adjustment. [2] - In 2024, the copper market has a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. [19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, scrap copper policies are relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month. The assessment is neutral. [2] - Basis: The spot price is 79120, the basis is 100, with a premium over futures. The assessment is neutral. [2] - Inventory: On August 12, copper inventory decreased by 700 to 155000 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared with last week. The assessment is neutral. [2] - Market Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. The assessment is bullish. [2] - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing. The assessment is bullish. [2] - Expectation: With the Fed's slowdown in rate cuts, inventory rebound, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption, the copper price will have a shock adjustment. [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Domestic policy easing [3] - Likely Negative Factors: Escalation of trade war [3] Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared with last week. [2] - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level. [13] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined. [15] Supply - Demand Balance - General Situation: In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. [19] - China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance Table: From 2018 - 2024, the supply - demand situation of copper in China has changed. For example, in 2018, the supply - demand balance was 10,000 tons, and in 2024, it was 110,000 tons. [21]