大越期货菜粕早报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a short - term strong and volatile pattern. It is mainly influenced by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the addition of margin requirements. The short - term range for RM2601 is expected to be between 2640 and 2688 [8]. - The market is focusing on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, while demand maintains a good outlook [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import margin is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import margins on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Likely to be Bearish: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply and demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including information on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24]. - Price and Transaction Data: From July 31 to August 11, data on the average transaction price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. Also, from August 4 to August 12, data on rapeseed meal futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided [12][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and funds have flowed out [8].