大越期货PVC期货早报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4991 - 5103. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [7][8][9]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The weekly sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream films was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - Cost side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average; the profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average; the double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 1.10%, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. - Other aspects: On August 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 243 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, with calcium carbide factory inventory at 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%, and ethylene factory inventory at 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force was short, and the short position decreased [8][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report presents the changes in yesterday's PVC market, including various indicators such as different contract prices, spreads, production, inventory, and operating rates, with detailed data on changes and growth rates [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend No analysis content provided, only a chart showing the basis trend over time. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread No analysis content provided, only a chart showing the spread trend of the main contract over time. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lancoke: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke over the years [27]. - Calcium carbide: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide over the years [30]. - Liquid chlorine and raw salt: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt over the years [32]. - Caustic soda: Illustrates the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and double - ton price difference trends of caustic soda over the years [34][37]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend Shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods for PVC over the years [38][41]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Presents the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC over the years [43][47]. - Displays the cost, profit, and monthly production trends of paste resin over the years [49]. - Shows the real - estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area over the years [54]. - Illustrates the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends over the years [57]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory Presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days over the years [59]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method Shows the import volume of vinyl chloride, dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) trends over the years [61]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC in 2024 and 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [64].