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大越期货燃料油早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-13 02:16

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the fuel oil market is expected to continue its low - level oscillatory operation. The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) is expected to operate in the range of 2720 - 2770, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) is expected to operate in the range of 3460 - 3500. Overnight crude oil showed weak performance, and the short - term market lacks clear long or short guidance. The market is waiting for the US - Russia talks [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil spot spread has narrowed to the smallest discount level in six weeks, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly. Although regional supply is still abundant, it is expected that the market will not reach the lows of previous weeks. Supply is expected to decrease from September, which will support the market [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 141 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 85 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - The high - sulfur main contract's short position is decreasing, while the low - sulfur main contract's long position is increasing [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market Drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 141 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is 85 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - Futures Price Changes: The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) main contract futures price decreased by 5 to 2769, a decrease of 0.18%. The low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) main contract futures price increased by 30 to 3499, an increase of 0.86%. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 77 to 141, a decrease of 35.30%, and the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 57 to 85, a decrease of 40.02% [5]. - Spot Price Changes: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 5 to 492, an increase of 1.03%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 6 to 506, an increase of 1.20%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9.73 to 392.54, a decrease of 2.42%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3 to 486.5, a decrease of 0.61%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 10.11 to 373.18, a decrease of 2.64%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased by 8.63 to 619.66, a decrease of 1.37% [6]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 6 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 47 million barrels to 2074.9 million barrels in the week of August 6 [8].