建信期货工业硅日报-20250813

Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Industry: Industrial Silicon [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The supply - demand situation remains in a loose pattern with both supply and demand increasing, and the short - term futures price will oscillate based on the spot price due to limited fundamental drivers and ineffective anti - involution policies [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - Futures Market: The industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The trading volume was 520,504 lots, and the open interest was 278,860 lots, with a net increase of 6,917 lots [4]. - Spot Market: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,800 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 8,850 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,500 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. - Outlook: The resumption of production in the southwest and Xinjiang led to the weekly output of industrial silicon reaching 83,500 tons (370,000 tons monthly). The increase in demand was less than that in supply. Polysilicon production in August was expected to reach 125,000 tons, while the organic silicon, alloy, and export sectors were expected to remain stable. The supply - demand of industrial silicon increased simultaneously, maintaining a loose pattern. The short - term futures price would oscillate based on the spot price [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 12, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,658 lots, a net decrease of 102 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25.7305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]