建信期货多晶硅日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-13 02:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend, with the PS2509 closing price at 52,985 yuan/ton, a gain of 6.34%. The market is currently in a post - rally consolidation phase, and the supply - demand contradiction of polysilicon is not intensified. The fundamentals, though not the short - term dominant factor, restrict the price increase. The supply in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of downstream demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW, keeping the supply - demand in a loose pattern. The average price of spot N - grade re - feed material is 47,200 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials has not been transmitted to components and the end - market. The futures and spot prices are rigidly supported by policies and are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon contract PS2509 closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, up 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4]. - Outlook: The commodity market is in a post - rally consolidation. The supply - demand of polysilicon is in a loose pattern. In August, the polysilicon production schedule increased to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW. The price of silicon materials has not been transmitted downstream. The prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,940 lots, a net increase of 240 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW [5]. - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].