建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250813

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7349 | 7364 | 7371 | 7332 | 13 | 0.18 | 245393 | 14157 | | Plastic 2605 | 7351 | 7367 | 7372 | 7338 | 15 | 0.20 | 13656 | 307 | | Plastic 2509 | 7298 | 7314 | 7322 | 7281 | 20 | 0.27 | 252486 | -18026 | | PP2601 | 7101 | 7120 | 7124 | 7085 | 24 | 0.34 | 284278 | 19893 | | PP2605 | 7092 | 7111 | 7114 | 7081 | 20 | 0.28 | 13958 | 953 | | PP2509 | 7069 | 7095 | 7099 | 7056 | 29 | 0.41 | 201314 | -27702 | [5] Spot Market - LLDPE Prices: In North China, 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton; in East China, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton; in South China, 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] - PP Prices: North China, 6920 - 7070 yuan/ton; East China, 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton; South China, 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [8] - Propylene Price: Shandong market, 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] 3. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upward, closing at 7329 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP closed at 7091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.21%). Futures' warm - oscillating trend boosted the spot market, with most producer prices stable and little change in cost support [6] - Supply Side: Upstream device operating rates continued to rise. PP's maintenance losses were still high but decreasing as previous maintenance devices restarted and new maintenance devices were few. A 900,000 - ton/year capacity addition plan in Ningbo Daxie Phase II was approaching. For PE, Jilin Petrochemical's production expansion in late July and potential new capacity from ExxonMobil Huizhou in August increased supply pressure [6] - Demand Side: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season and had low inventory - building willingness due to losses. Demand was expected to improve in the second half of the month, and most downstream enterprises maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - Cost Side: Coal prices were likely to rise due to production inspections and peak - summer coal demand. Crude oil prices might fall again due to OPEC+ production increase and under - expected peak - season performance [6] - Outlook: The loose fundamental situation would limit upward price movement. With new capacity coming online and the expected "Golden September" peak - season inventory - building demand in the second half of the month, polyolefin prices might bottom out and then rebound [6] 4. Industry News - On August 12, 2025, major producers' inventory was 815,000 tons, down 20,000 tons (2.40%) from the previous day, compared with 830,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Some major propylene producers in certain areas planned to shut down, supporting the market supply. Downstream factories' purchasing enthusiasm increased, and propylene producers raised prices significantly and limited sales [7]