建信期货国债日报-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term, the Politburo meeting in July indicated that the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation remains unchanged, and high tariff uncertainty and potential export - related risks suggest the bull - market foundation for bonds is intact. Short - term, the joint statement on tariff exemption extension reduces uncertainty, cools risk - aversion sentiment, and with the strength of commodities and the stock market, the bond market, especially long - term bonds, is under pressure. Given the supportive factors for the August capital market, short - term 2 - year and 5 - year bond varieties may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended. Also, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in July economic data this week [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Market Performance: The stock - bond seesaw continued. Bank - to - bank funds were loose but had limited impact, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Interest rates of major on - the - run bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield rising 0.75bp to 1.725% by 16:30 [8][9]. - Funding Market: The central bank conducted consecutive net withdrawals, but inter - bank funds remained loose. There were 1607 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank carried out 1146 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index eased, short - term fund rates fluctuated slightly, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - Conclusion: Long - term, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains. Short - term, long - term bonds are under pressure. Short - term bonds may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended. Attention should be paid to July economic data [11][12]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Sino - US Relations: On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US promised to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [13]. - Domestic Policies: Multiple policies were introduced, including a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy, a service industry business loan subsidy policy, an expansion of the use scope of housing provident funds in Suzhou [13][14]. - International Relations: US and Russian leaders are scheduled to meet on August 15. Different parties have expressed their attitudes and demands regarding the Russia - Ukraine peace process, and there are many differences among them [15]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - Treasury Bond Futures: Information on trading data, spreads, and trends of treasury bond futures was provided, including cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the trends of main contracts [6][16][21]. - Money Market: Information on the money market was presented, including the term structure and trends of SHIBOR, and the weighted interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase [25][30][35]. - Derivatives Market: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [37].