大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Due to capacity mismatch, the situation of strong supply and weak demand persists, and the downward trend is difficult to change. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 80,700 - 84,340 [8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, with a 13.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and that of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 78,069 yuan/ton, a 6.11% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,176 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,830 yuan/ton, a 2.19% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 5,942 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Basis: On August 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter's inventory was 50,999 tons, a 1.84% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a 4.95% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. - Expectation: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,000 physical tons, and next - month's import volume is forecasted to be 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased, lower than the historical average [8]. - Likely Positive Factors: Manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction, a month - on - month decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - Likely Negative Factors: Sustained high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Yesterday's Market Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 840 to 910 US dollars/ton, a 8.33% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 74,500 to 78,000 yuan/ton, a 4.70% increase [15]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore - Production Costs: The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 78,069 yuan/ton, a 6.11% increase; the daily production cost of lithium mica was 80,830 yuan/ton, a 2.19% increase [17]. - Production and Import: In July 2025, the monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, and the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons [17]. - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Supply: The weekly operating rate was 45.58%, a 2.77% decrease. The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a 2.94% increase [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery - Production and Sales: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase; the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 290,700 tons, a 1.86% increase. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 2,031,541 kg, a 115.75% increase [17]. - New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales: The production was 1,268,000 vehicles, a 0.16% decrease; the sales were 1.329 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase [17]. 3.5 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The total weekly inventory was 142,418 tons, a 0.49% increase. The smelter's inventory decreased by 1.84% week - on - week, while the downstream inventory increased by 4.95% week - on - week [8][17]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The weekly inventory data is not provided comprehensively, but the monthly inventory data shows certain trends in different periods [17].