大越期货豆粕早报-20250813

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short term. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3080 and 3140. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade tariffs, and the arrival of imported soybeans [8]. - The soybean market is currently neutral. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4100. The market is affected by factors like the cost of imported soybeans, the harvest situation in South America, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal market is moderately bullish in the short term, with the price of M2601 ranging from 3080 to 3140. The soybean market is neutral, with the price of A2511 ranging from 4000 to 4100 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean market is expected to fluctuate near the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in July, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to a volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 171, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 266, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].