建信期货贵金属日评-20250813

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the mid - line upward trend remains good. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. The long - term and mid - term bull markets of gold are supported by multiple factors, but the high price also means significant volatility. Investors are advised to take a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity when silver's upward momentum fades [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - Intraday Quotes: Overnight, London gold continued to pull back to around $3340 per ounce due to Trump's clarification of no plan to impose tariffs on gold and silver and the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Silver prices were relatively strong due to expectations of China's anti - involution policy. The market expects the US overall CPI and core CPI to increase by 2.8% and 3% year - on - year respectively. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. This week, key events include the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Quotes: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.83, down 0.44%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9206, down 0.25%; Gold T + D closed at 772.56, down 0.43%; Silver T + D closed at 9159, down 0.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [5]. - Mid - term Quotes: Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although international trade cooling and US fiscal expansion have weakened gold's demand, Trump's new policies, geopolitical risks, and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. The gold - silver ratio has rebounded slightly after falling to 86. In the long - term, gold's bull market is supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and in the mid - term, it is supported by Trump's reforms and economic factors. However, high prices also bring high volatility. In the short - term, London gold is expected to continue to trade within the range [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided [7][9][11]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff truce with China by 90 days and may allow NVIDIA to sell a reduced - version of its next - generation chips in China. - Trump proposed that both Ukraine and Russia should make territorial concessions to end the war, and he will meet with Putin on Friday. European leaders and Zelensky plan to talk to Trump before the meeting. - Trump stated that he will not impose tariffs on gold. - Trump will deploy 800 National Guard soldiers to Washington, DC, and put the local police under federal control to combat crime [17][18].