工业硅期货早报-20250813

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows continuous recovery overall, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans; the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Last week, industrial silicon supply was 84,000 tons, a 3.70% increase; demand was 78,000 tons, an 11.43% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 479 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive开工率 is 74.84%, flat compared to the previous period and higher than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 612 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum开工率 is at a low level. The cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang is in a loss state, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On August 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 1.30% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 170,050 tons, a 0.81% decrease; major port inventory was 118,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Last week, polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase, and the August production schedule is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production are showing different trends. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,720 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On August 12, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the basis, inventory, production, and开工率 of different regions and specifications showed different changes [15]. - Polysilicon: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the prices, production, inventory, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [17]. 3.4 Other Charts and Tables - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 of industrial silicon [20]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Displayed the historical inventory changes of industrial silicon in different regions and types [22]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Presented the historical production and开工率 changes of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications [26]. - Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends: Showed the historical price trends of electricity, silica, graphite electrodes, and reducing agents in the main production areas [31]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Displayed the historical cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables: Presented the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Included price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [41][43][46]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Included price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends related to aluminum alloy [49][52][54]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Included cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [60][63][66].